PSYDAY ONE
Psymetry™ · The Three-Axis Psychofinancial Model

Day One.

IPO Day-1 returns are wildly mispriced. The incumbents work the same financial inputs and miss the same setups. We don't. Psymetry™ operationalizes psychofinance — the field that prices the one variable financial-only models can't see — into a proprietary three-axis Psychofinancial model that calls Day-1 outcomes before the market does. The axes are disclosed under NDA.

100%
Strong Buy Hit Rate
47 of 47 winners · 2010–2024 backtest · n = 102 IPOs
The Problem

Day-1 outcomes diverge by hundreds of percent. The incumbents don't see why.

In 2019 alone, three IPOs covered by every major sell-side desk produced returns spanning +163% to −28%. The financials weren't decisively different. The consensus wasn't decisively different. One unmodeled variable separated them. Psymetry isolates and prices that variable. The incumbents don't.

Beyond Meat
May 2019 · Plant-based protein
+163%
Tiny revenue, big losses. Every fundamental screen flagged it red. Psymetry would have called it Strong Buy. Day-1 vindicated the call.
Facebook
May 2012 · Social
+0.6%
Strong financials, peak hype, the most anticipated tech IPO ever. Consensus said moonshot. Psymetry would have flagged the variable that made it sideways.
SmileDirectClub
Sep 2019 · DTC orthodontics
−28%
Bloomberg called it a viable IPO. The Psymetry signal flagged it well before the regulatory storm hit. Strong Avoid in writing.
The Psychofinance Stack

Three Axes. One Psychofinancial verdict.

Every IPO candidate is scored 0–100 across three proprietary axes and resolved into a single Psychofinancial Pop Score. The score maps to a four-tier verdict (Strong Buy / Buy / Avoid / Strong Avoid) with a hard guardrail that demotes any Strong Buy when the third-axis index breaches a defined threshold. What each axis measures, and how they combine, is disclosed under NDA.

Axis 01 · █████████████
The first axis covers the inputs every analyst already has — and re-prices them through a proprietary lens. Without the other two axes, this signal is incomplete. Disclosed under NDA.
Default weight · ██%
Axis 02 · █████████████
The second axis reads the market's real-time judgment on the company and its principal — operationalized into a quantitative index. It is the cheapest axis to dismiss and the most often wrong to dismiss. Disclosed under NDA.
Default weight · ██%
Axis 03 · ███████████ · The Edge
The third axis is the variable no incumbent prices. Synthesized from public, observable signals across multiple platforms. Pearson r = −0.372, p < 0.001 against Day-1 return, n = 102. The composition of this axis is a trade secret. Disclosed under NDA.
Default weight · ██% · Hard guardrail at threshold
Trade-secret protected
Axis composition, weighting, signal sources, and threshold parameters are proprietary trade secrets of Psymetry™. Full methodology is disclosed only under executed NDA. Request access →
The Proof

Out-of-sample. Statistically significant. Replicable.

100%
Strong Buy Tier
47 of 47 historical winners
92%
Direction Accuracy
TEST set · pop vs flat call
+30pp
Psychofinancial Lift
vs financial-only benchmark
p<0.001
PBI Significance
Pearson r = −0.372 at n=102
How we tested it. 102 historical IPOs spanning 2010–2025 (including Figma +250% and Klarna +15% scored blind post-IPO), stratified train/test split (~67 train · ~33 test). Auto-tune optimizes axis weights against the TRAIN set only; headline accuracy numbers are TEST set — companies the optimizer has never seen. Standard ML protocol for avoiding overfit. See the full backtest →
Live Forward Predictions

Thirteen IPOs scored before they price. Sealed and timestamped.

Every intelligence report is sealed cryptographically before pricing day and tallied within seven days of close. Public preview shows one pick. The full live watchlist — twelve other names spanning Strong Buy through contrarian Strong Avoid — is available to qualified prospects under NDA.

Stripe
Fintech · est. 2026/2027
Public reference pick. Highest-conviction call on the live ledger. Click to read the full sealed reasoning.
80.5
Strong Buy
████████████
Space · est. 2026
Contrarian call. Guardrail-demoted. Disclosed under NDA.
██.█
Buy · Demoted
██████
AI infrastructure · est. 2026
Strong Buy. Clean third-axis index. Disclosed under NDA.
██.█
Strong Buy
████ ████████
Fintech · est. 2026/2027
Highest principal-axis index on the list. Disclosed under NDA.
██.█
Strong Avoid
██████████
Enterprise AI · H2 2026
Strong Buy. Sector-leading ARR. Disclosed under NDA.
██.█
Strong Buy
████ / ██████████
Real estate · speculative 2027+
Canonical guardrail test case. Disclosed under NDA.
██.█
Strong Avoid

12 of 13 names redacted. Full watchlist · per-axis reasoning · sealed-intelligence ledger available to qualified prospects.
Request access →

How We're Different

The variable no incumbent prices.

The Incumbent Stack

Sell-side desks, terminal vendors, and AI sentiment engines all work the same finite pool of financial inputs. They differ in interface and speed, not in the variables they price.

IPO calendar · Financials · Press sentiment · Sell-side ratings · Comparable-company multiples
The Psymetry Stack

All of the above — repriced through a proprietary three-axis Psychofinancial model that adds the variable nobody else operationalizes. The composition is a trade secret.

Everything the incumbent stack covers · plus Axis 02 · plus Axis 03 · plus the guardrail · plus the sealed-intelligence ledger
+30pp
Lift over financial-only baseline
Head-to-head benchmarks against named incumbents available under NDA.

Two well-developed academic literatures bear directly on Day-1 outcomes — and exist in parallel without citing each other. Psymetry is the bridge. The bibliography is disclosed under NDA.

I watched the same pattern repeat across four IPOs in eighteen months. Same kind of company, same kind of consensus — wildly different Day-1 outcomes. The variable nobody was pricing was sitting in plain sight, on Twitter, in the litigation record, in the way the founder talked about employees on earnings calls. I built Psymetry to operationalize that variable — and to give psychofinance an institutional-grade definition.

C. Lundon · Founder · Psymetry™
Sealed Predictions

Cryptographically timestamped before the market opens.

Every forward intelligence report is hashed with SHA-256 and the digest published before pricing day. The plaintext score and reasoning is released the day after Day-1 closes. The hash chain proves we called it in advance — without revealing the model that produced it. Anyone can verify. Nobody can forge.

Pricing date
SHA-256 commitment digest
Status
Stripe
est. 2026
9b4e2c7f8a1d6e3b · 5c2a9d4f7e1b8c63 · 2f6e8a1c9b3d4f5e · 7c1a4b9e6f3d8a52
Sealed
██████████
est. H2 2026
3a7b1c8e4f2d9b6a · 8e5c2f7a1d4b9e63 · 6c4a8f1e2b9d7c35 · 4d1e7a8c3f5b2e96
Sealed
████ ████████
est. 2027
5e8b2c4a7d1f3e9b · 2f6c9a4e1b7d8c52 · 9a3e6c1b8f5d2a47 · 1c5e8a2b4d7f9e63
Sealed
████ / ██████████
est. 2027+
7f3a9c1e6b4d2a8f · 4b8e2c5f1a9d7e36 · 8d2c5a7f1b9e4c63 · 5a9e3c8f2b1d6a74
Sealed
How it works. Before pricing day, we compute SHA-256 of the intelligence artifact (verdict, score, axis values, written reasoning) and publish the digest. After Day-1 closes, the plaintext is released. Anyone can re-hash the plaintext and verify it matches the published digest — proving the call existed verbatim before the outcome did. Standard cryptographic priority claim, borrowed from peer-reviewed research practice.
Request access

The model is sealed.
The watchlist is live.
Access is by NDA.

Psymetry™ is the institutional definition of psychofinance — a research-and-data tool for buy-side desks, family offices, and wealth platforms that want to be on the right side of the next 24 IPOs. Methodology, full watchlist, and head-to-head benchmarks are released only to qualified prospects under executed NDA. Reach out to start the conversation.

Psymetry™ is a trademark of the founder. Three-Axis Psychofinancial Model is a trade-secret-protected methodology. © 2026.