DAY ONE — Psymetry™ Model Strength

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DAY ONE · Psymetry™ Model Strength

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Strong Buy Hit Rate

— of — winners · 2010–2024 backtest

Psymetry v7

May 2026

Forward Predictions · Live Watchlist

SpaceX

Forward · est. 2026 · ~$350B private val · space

73.0

Buy · PBI-demoted

Psychobehavioural Index 22/30 — High bucket

Nscale

Forward · est. 2026 · $14.6B Series C · AI infra

72.4

Strong Buy

Psychobehavioural Index 10/30 — Low bucket

Cerebras

Forward · Q2 2026 · refiled Apr 2026 · semis

70.0

Strong Buy

Psychobehavioural Index 9/30 — Low bucket

Databricks

Forward · H2 2026 / 2027 · $134B private · AI/data

79.9

Strong Buy

Psychobehavioural Index 9/30 — Low bucket

Liquid Death

Forward · rumored 2026 · $1.4B private · consumer

66.7

Strong Buy

Psychobehavioural Index 7/30 — Low bucket

Discord

Forward · rumored 2026 · ~150M MAU · social

62.5

Strong Buy

Psychobehavioural Index 9/30 — Low bucket

Stripe

Forward · est. 2026/2027 · $70B private · fintech

80.5

Strong Buy

Psychobehavioural Index 6/30 — Low bucket · highest-confidence call

Shein

Forward · H2 2026 · $30-50B HK/London · fast fashion

43.0

Avoid

PBI 15/30 · multi-axis weakness — labor + governance + venue

Bolt Financial

Forward · est. 2026/27 · raising $600M · fintech

37.3

Strong Avoid

PBI 21/30 · highest founder-risk in entire watchlist

Gopuff

Forward · 2026 · $8.5B (down from $15B) · delivery

49.0

Avoid

PBI 9/30 — clean founders, weak fundamentals

Yuga Labs

Forward · speculative 2026/27 · BAYC creator · NFT

43.0

Avoid

PBI 12/30 · NFT market collapse + brand decline

Flow / Adam Neumann

Forward · speculative 2027+ · a16z-backed · residential

35.0

Strong Avoid

PBI 25/30 · the canonical PBI guardrail test case

Carta · edge case

Forward · 2026/27 · cap-table SaaS · ~$2B secondary

42.0

Avoid

PBI 20/30 · shallow research = Buy, deep research = Avoid

Blackstone Digital Infra Trust

Forward · prices week of 2026-05-11 · NYSE: BXDC · $1.75B

77.6

Strong Buy

PBI 8/30 · Low bucket · highest score in May 11 cohort · institutional governance

Fervo Energy

Forward · prices week of 2026-05-11 · Nasdaq: FRVO · $1.33B at $6.5B val

73.7

Strong Buy

PBI 8/30 · Low · strongest narrative in cohort · climate-tech + AI-DC bridge

HawkEye 360

Forward · prices week of 2026-05-11 · NYSE: HAWK · $400M defense SIGINT

69.2

Strong Buy

PBI 7/30 · Low · profitable defense-data · post-Swarmer momentum

IMPACT Therapeutics

Forward · trades 2026-05-13 · HKEX 18A · ~$117M · Tencent cornerstone

66.4

Strong Buy

PBI 8/30 · Low · first Asia anchor post-HSBC pivot

Suja Life

Forward · prices ~2026-05-07 · Nasdaq: SUJA · $200M functional bev

61.3

Strong Buy

PBI 7/30 · Low · $326.6M revenue +26% YoY · Up-C structure drag

Mobia Medical

Forward · prices week of 2026-05-04 to 11 · Nasdaq: MOBI · $150-160M

58.1

Buy

PBI 8/30 · Low · FDA-approved Vivistim · 19-year operational history

Odyssey Therapeutics

Forward · prices week of 2026-05-11 · Nasdaq: ODTX · $225M autoimmune biotech

56.1

Buy

PBI 7/30 · Low · repeat founder Glick · 2024 withdrawn-IPO drag

Optimi Health

Forward · prices week of 2026-05-08 · Nasdaq uplist from CSE · $17.5M

43.4

Avoid

PBI 10/30 · Mid bucket · only Mid PBI · interim-CEO drag

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Direction hit Miss Forward prediction

Three Axes · One Verdict

Psychofinance · Psychohistory · Psychobehavioural

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Direction

pop vs flat · all 75

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Strong Buy Tier

PBI-adjusted hit rate

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PBI Correlation

Pearson r · p<0.001

Out-of-Sample TEST · Psymetry vs Financial-Only

DIR

BUCKET

MAE

Psymetry (3 axes)

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Financial-only baseline

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Behavioral lift

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Out-of-Sample TEST · Psymetry vs Financial-Only

Verdict Tiers · Full Backtest · PBI-Adjusted